How PMB’s Policies Destroy Nigeria’s Economy

• How his anti-corruption fight pushed Nigeria into its first recession in 20 years

• Buhari’s Constant interference in the CBN caused loss of Confidence

• Under 5 years, 105 million Nigerians regressed into abject poverty

By Mike Odeh James

Prior to May 2015, Nigerians were rated as the happiest people in the face of the globe. It is very soon obvious why a nation of 190 million persons would be regarded as the happiest in the world.

Way back in 2013, Nigeria Bureau for Statistics, NBS, announced that the country’s GDP stood at $503bn, which is also £307bn. This announcement put Nigeria as the largest economy in Africa, beating South Africa and Egypt to second and third places respectively.

The economy then was rated larger than those of Poland and Belgium as it was also seen as the 24th largest economy in the world.

Similarly, the NBS showed then that the telecommunications sector, film industry, the Music industry and foreign direct investments gave the economy a big boost that ensured that Nigeria has gradually begun to diversify from an oil-dependent economy.

According to the NBS, the manufacturing sector then produced a large proportion of goods and services for the West African subcontinent.

A report by CNN Money in 2013, said the country’s growth was 7.0 per cent in 2015, which makes Nigeria the third fastest growing economy after China and Dubai respectively.

Just before the 2015 polls, an official of the United Kingdom Government also rated Nigeria’s growth rate at 8.9 per cent, making it the fourth largest economy in the world.

As for job creation, the former Finance Minister of Nigeria, Dr. Ngozi Okwonjo Iweala, stated that between 2011 and 2013, 1.5 million direct jobs were created, while Alex Agbo, a financial expert opined that over 2 million jobs were directly created and 4 – 6 million indirect jobs were added to the economy.

According to Alex Agbo, most of these jobs came as a result of diversification of the economy, banking sector reforms, boost from Nigeria’s film industry, music industry, the telecommunication sector and foreign direct inflow.

According to the Nigerian statistics office, the country’s total GDP for 2013 was N80.3 Trillion (£307.6bn; $509.9bn).

It is likely that much of this growth is as a result of increasing Foreign Direct Investment to the country.

Economically, Nigeria then was on its path to becoming an economic superpower in the world in addition to it being an economic hub.

Since the return to democratic rule, successive governments from Olusegun Obasanjo through Goodluck Jonathan via Umar Musa Yar’Adua had put in place policies that ensured the country’s economy grew at a very appreciable level.

However, by 2015 September to the first quarter of 2015, Nigeria under newly elected President Muhammad Buhari began to show signs of stress and before the first quarter of 2016, the country was in a recession.

President Muhammad Buhari from historic records would have the record of having the negative opportunity of plunging Nigeria into two major economic depressions in five years – 2016 and 2020.

To be fair to Mr. President, the economy in 2015 even before Goodluck Jonathan handed over to him posted a negative growth in 2015.

The President, who was newly elected then, also raised alarm severally that his government inherited virtually an empty treasury from the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, led administration.

In 2015, Buhari had this to say on the state of the country’s economy.

“I’m going to be brief because it will be consistently brief until I leave this dull place,” Mr. Buhari told the journalists.

“This culture of 100 days is bringing so much pressure with treasury virtually empty, with debts in millions of dollars, with state workers and even federal workers not paid their salaries; it is such a disgrace for Nigeria. I think Nigeria should be in a position to even pay its workers.”

President Buhari is not the only one that complained of inheriting a poor or empty treasury from the PDP, as nearly all the All Progressives Congress, APC, honchos had at one time or another complained.

Even the incumbent Senate President complained of Buhari inheriting a mismanaged economy.

Ahmad Lawan said: “We came in 2015, we inherited a poor government but

President Muhammadu Buhari came in with determination and focus to ensure that this country works for the citizens. That government resources are prudently and economically utilized and applied for the people.”

“Though we inherited an empty treasury, the price of crude went down so badly, yet the little resources we started with provided lots of infrastructure and services to this country.”

“So, to many right-thinking politicians, when you see prudence, sincerity, purposefulness in leadership; the best thing to do is not to be left behind but to join forces for the benefits of the people you represent,” he quipped.

Nigeria’s Economic Woes Exacerbates Under Buhari

Despite all the excuses given for Nigeria’s malaises, despite all the measures taken by the Federal Government to turn around the economy, data from credible platforms and organizations show a deep economic regression in Nigeria since 2015.

For the past five years of Buhari administration, Nigeria has overtaken India as the poverty capital of the world.

The country, which is smaller in size and population when compared to India, has the highest number of people living in abject poverty, a position held by the former.

As of November 2020, 105 million Nigerians are extremely poor, so says World Poverty Clock reports.

Likewise, a World Bank report had in 2018 said Nigeria will take over from India as the world capital for deaths of children under the age of five by 2021.

The bank’s report was based on the fact that India, with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 989,000 under-five deaths in 2017, while Nigeria, with 196 million citizens, recorded 714,000 under-five deaths in the same year.

The same bank stated that Nigeria recorded the highest number of child malaria deaths anywhere in the world; it also added that Nigeria had the highest number of out-of-school children anywhere in the world, and that 90 per cent of these children are from Northern Nigeria.

Early this year, Desert Herald findings showed that with an average of three persons kidnapped in a week in the States of Zamfara and Kaduna, Nigeria is the kidnap Capital of the world.

What is noteworthy is that most of the kidnappings and banditry are mainly confined to the 19 northern states of the federation. Furthermore, these vices are driven purely by economic reasons. Nigeria is no longer the fastest growing economy in Africa neither did it come to the top ten.

Yinka Adegoke of Quartz Africa summed up the top economies in Africa:

The top performers will be South Sudan (8.2%), Rwanda (8.1%) Côte d’Ivoire (7.3%), Ethiopia (7.2%), Senegal (6.8%), Benin (6.7%) and Uganda (6.2%) along with Kenya, Mozambique, Niger and Burkina Faso all expecting 6% growth.

While these countries help pushup a quagmire overall average economic growth rate forecast to 3.8% (or 3.6% for Sub-Saharan Africa), these averages are weighed down closer to the global average (3.4%) by the two largest economies, Nigeria (2.5%) and South Africa (1.1%).

Adegoke further added that “Nigeria’s outlook has improved after a strong end to 2019, but most economic watchers believe it needs to grow much faster to pull large chunks of its 200- million strong population out of poverty”.

How Buhari Destroyed Nigeria’s Economy

While the Government believes that the economic downturn was the handwork of previous administrations, Professor Moses Ochonu listed a number of reasons why he believes that the incumbent President was responsible for all that bedeviled the nation in the past five years.

The professor said when Buhari became the President in 2015, he was totally unprepared and this could be seen in the way he went about with his shoddy preparation when nominating his cabinet members.

Ochonu said, “The unpreparedness that plagued the early months of the Buhari administration – exemplified by the fact that it took seven months to name a cabinet – reflected its inability to bear the weight of promises made. And the sense of disillusionment that has now enveloped swathes of Nigeria stems from this unnecessary self-burdening as well as the government’s failure to articulate a compelling vision.

The Professor also added that the President had not been proactive or had not taken the right steps to lead the country out of its economic quagmire.

“In the course of his short time in office, Buhari’s image as an ascetic and empathetic figure has disappeared, and he has shown a disturbing lack of initiative, creativity and new thinking in government, belying his inspiring pre-election rhetoric”, he added.

Records indeed supported Professor Ochonu’s assertions. Immediately he was sworn-in on May 2019, the President did not act decisively by appointing ministers who would oversee the activities of respective miniseries. So with no one in charge for close to six months, the economy of the country pummeled downwards.

A developmental economist, Odilim Ewagbara, also agreed with Moses Ochonu. He said: “It is a shame that five months after his re-election, President Buhari is finding it difficult naming his cabinet”, Ewagbara said.

According to Ewagbara, there is this consensus that Permanent Secretaries cannot sign documents nor take decisive steps on behalf of the country.

Ewagbara said: “The President won a re-election in February and five months after, he cannot constitute a cabinet. Such is not good for our economy.

“There are critical roles that ministers perform in the running of the government and without them, things will not move.”

“There are certain agreements that Permanent Secretaries cannot sign. A one-man government is a dangerous government and that is not the way to go. We are beginning to experience what we went through in 2015 when it took the President about six months to form his cabinet.”

Analysts said this delay in appointing ministers to run the affairs of the country had a devastating effect on foreign investments in the country.

Another damaging action of the President was the misplaced priority of embarking on the war against corruption instead of fighting a looming recession in 2016.

Despite all the signs that the economy was hemorrhaging, the President concentrated his efforts on recovery of loots and fighting against corrupt practices.

According to Alex Agbo, “it is not a bad thing for the President to fight corruption, but he used the anticorruption fight to pulverize his political opponents and their businesses, the international community were seeing what was happening and felt that Nigeria has regressed back politically.

According to Alex, the height of the impunity of the fight against corruption was when personnel from Directorate of State Security Service raided the bureau d change in the name of fighting corruption.

The arrest of justices of the federation also caused so much consternation within the international community.

Hajia Nana Hafsat Omale, an activist from Kogi state, blamed the Presidency for the 2016 recession.

She added that the recession could have been avoided if Buhari had pursued a peaceful option in the Niger Delta.

“After the Bayelsa Governorship election in 2016, the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission, EFCC, issued an arrest warrant for Tompolo.”

“Government Ekpemupolo, alias Tompolo, was approached by Timipreye Silver, the APC Governorship candidate to help secure a win in Bayelsa.”

Nana further explained that Tompolo refused to back Silver and then the EFCC went after him.

Tompolo went underground and the Army went after him.

With that, the bombing of oil pipelines resumed and Nigeria’s oil production reduces drastically and with that recession set in, Hajia Nana added.

While Hajia Nana’s assertion was exactly true of the situation in 2016, President Buhari had also interfered with the running of the Central Bank of Nigeria by saying that he would not allow the Naira to float in response to international demands.

His continuous stance on the naira left the Governor of the CBN no choice but to peg the naira at a fix rate. Nonetheless, Buhari would later reverse his stance after a huge damage was done.

Premium Times, a Nigerian online media, also wrote about the President’s inner cabinet whose actions have helped to devastate the economic growth of the country.

Premium Times write-up reads: “President Buhari’s leadership style has not helped the economy because he has encouraged an over centralisation of power in the presidency.”

A small group of his aides – whose competence, motivations and integrity have been questioned by critics – has clearly hijacked the exercise of presidential power and the judgment that necessarily goes into that process.

This has created a mindset that shuts out competing views and ideas, and has struck anxiety and paralysis into President Buhari’s government bureaucracy.

It is widely known, from the experience with the government thus far, that virtually all- important decisions are made by a very small number of aides in the presidency. The necessary tonic of initiative and intellectual ferment has thus been shut out of economic decision-making for far too long, as has the wide and available talent pool required to rejuvenate economic policy.

The actions of the President in 2020 which led to removal of subsidies on fuel, electricity and increment in Value Added Tax on Nigerians have all taken a deadly toll on the purchasing power of Nigerians pushing many to poverty.

Furthermore, the inability of the President to curb the Farmers/ Herders clashes in the Middle Belt Region has led to growing number of farmers abandoning their farms. This has further degraded the economy.

Similarly, the crisis in the North East and North West and the inability of the government to curb the spiraling insecurity have in no small way harmed farming activities of over 2 million farmers.

For Dahiru Umar Muhammad, a Kaduna based financial expert, the closure of borders have not only increased hunger but it has put pressure on the small manufacturing sector.

“Nigerians used to export Ankara, Soap, Slippers and other items to Benin Republic, Ghana and Togo but with the borders closed, that is no longer possible.”

“Similarly, the restriction of food importation without adequate preparation for it has led to widespread hunger and poverty,” Dahiru added.

While the international community believes that Nigeria may implode due to harsh and unnecessary economic policies of the Buhari administration, Nigerians are also growing restless about a bleak future.