2023: APC Implodes As APC NEC Shuts Out Tinubu

•Senate President Lawan Fights Buni over VP Slot

•Tinubu’s Loyalists Plot breakout from APC

• Court Cases Set To Impale Party Success

By Mike Odeh James

It was a meeting that was supposed to fill or paper the cracks that were noticed when Adams Oshiomhole was unceremoniously kicked out as the Chairman of the party. Rather than broker peace, the meeting of the National Executive Committee, NEC, of the APC did the opposite.

Firstly, the tenure of the contentious Caretaker/ Extra National Convention Planning Committee led by Mai Mala Buni who is the governor of Yobe State.

The tenure of the committee was supposed to expire by December 25th, 2020 but was extended for another six months.

According to the APC NEC, “This is to enable the Caretaker and Convention Planning Committee conclude its assignment as laid before NEC.”

Another far reaching decision taken by the NEC meeting was the granting of waivers to members who had newly joined the party and may be want to vie for any political post under the flag of the party.

Third resolution was expulsion of Ntufam Hilliard Eta from the party for refusing to abide by the directives of NEC to discontinue all litigations against the party and its members.

The meeting also approved the immediate dissolution of the party organs at all polling units, wards, local government, states and zonal levels as well as the non-National Working Committee component of the National Executive Committee, as well as their immediate reconstitution and composition of the dissolved EXCOs to serve in their respective offices in a caretaker committee capacity but excluding the non-NWC members of NEC.

For Governor Mala Buni, it was a dream come true, for he has actually been in a heated competition with the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan.

Lawan wanted an early end to the Caretaker Committee so that delegates could be elected and Presidential candidates could emerge.

Prior to this era, the Senate was a major decider on who becomes who in the political field. However, Mala Buni came as the head of the Caretaker Committee with a measure of successes that required no input from the Senate: the movement of Governor Dave Umahi; Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and Senator Eli Abboh to APC highlighted some of the successes of Buni.

Buni’s Committee would also take the credit for bringing back political heavyweights like Barnabas Gemade, former national officer, Senator Osita Izunaso, and Senator Ifeanyi

Ararume among many others.

And in a deft political move, the Yobe State Governor has also been able to garner the support of most APC governors to his camp and this showed off when Buni went to the secretariat in company of some APC governors like Yahaya Bello of Kogi State, Kayode Fayemi (Ekiti), Simon Lalong (Plateau), Abdullahi Ganduje (Kano), Sani Bello (Niger), Nasir el-Rufai of Kaduna, Abubakar Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi) and Gboyega

Oyetola (Osun).

The result of Buni’s work led to the extension of the Caretaker committee which he heads by six months.

On the other hand, Senate President Ahmed Lawan, who was opposed to the extension of the lifespan of the Caretaker/ Extra National Convention Planning committee, was unable to get the support of his fellow Senators as some of them had sided with Governor Buni.

Both Lawan and Buni are from the same state and both of them are angling to be picked as the running mate to any Southerner who eventually gets the APC Presidential ticket.

In this regard, Buni seems to have the upper hand. He has successfully brought in Dave Umahi to the APC and had been able to secure a waiver for him to vie for the Presidency under the APC.

Secondly, as the Governor of his state, Buni may decide, if their disagreement continues to linger, to deny Ahmed Lawan another opportunity to the Senate.

For Lawan, his political career seems to have lost out in the murky waters of politics. The dissolution of all the committees and organs of the party has further weakened the strength of his political allies mainly from the Southwest.

In the same vein, the expulsion of former deputy national chairman of the party, Hilliard Etta, has further compounded his position.

Lawan, who seem to have a soft spot for the APC National Leader, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, is now at a crossroad.

His political benefactor is almost muscled out of the party and the Senate President has lost out in the power play in his state.

The two options before him: remain in the party and continue remaining in the APC and be sidelined or follow Tinubu and leave the party at the appropriate time.

The Bretrayal Of Tinubu And The Soutwest

For many from the Southwest, the extension of the Buni-led committee is a sign that the North and President Buhari have betrayed their region.

Many of the Southwest people have had it at the back of their minds that after Buhari’s 8 years at the “Rock”, it would be the turn of their region to produce the next President.

To this end, the Yorubas have been the most vociferous supporters of the Buhari administration no matter how poorly he had performed.

The Southwest have two major political heavyweights that they think should succeed Buhari – Tinubu and Osinbajo.

The main snags to this school of thought are two: Some of President Buhari’s closest allies do not see zoning or rotation as a good thing for Nigeria’s democracy. They would, therefore, prefer to let merit and democratic ideals prevail.

According to Buhari’s nephew, Mamman Daura, “This turn-by-turn, it was done once, it was done twice, and it was done thrice… It is better for this country to be one…it should be for the most competent and not for someone who comes from somewhere,” he told the BBC Hausa Service in an interview.

Dismissing the clamour for power shift, he said it was time for the country to unite and go for the most competent person to lead the nation.

According to him, since Nigerians have tried the rotational presidency about thrice already, it would be better to go for the most qualified candidate in 2023 irrespective of whether he comes from the North or the South.

This, he said, would be better for the nation’s unity.

However, many Southerners see Daura’s comment as mirroring the mindset of the President.

They also argued that Buhari became the President because of the zoning arrangement agreed on during the formative stage of the APC.

This prompted Minister of Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola, to charge the President to respect the zoning arrangement agreed upon.

Fashola warned that rejection of zoning arrangement by the APC would only hurt the long term interest of the party.

It should be noted that President Buhari contested three times for the Presidency and at each occasion lost till the South West led by Tinubu threw their weight behind Buhari in 2015 leading to the defeat of the ruling party.

Since 2015, Tinubu had positioned his political machinery to take over from President Buhari when the tenure of the later comes to an end but on each turn, he had been ambushed.

Fashola spoke amid reports that some APC members are plotting to thwart the arrangement for power shift between North and South, and retain the presidency in the North after President Muhammadu Buhari’s second term.

Another snag on the path of Asiwaju’s ascendency to power is those who felt that the zoning arrangement between the North and South be respected but power should shift to the South East after the end of Buhari’s second tenure.

Those in this league include some powerful Governors, Ministers and senators mainly from the North West, South South and South East.

Aware of how powerful is the hold of Tinubu on the South West, the group proceeded to draft Umahi to the APC in order to ameliorate voters’ backlash on the APC from the Southwest in case Tinubu is edged out from the party.

Unfazed by the manipulation of those that do not want him in the APC, the former Lagos Governor has pushed on with his ambition of becoming the President.

First, his loyalists have instituted cases against the legality of Buni-led Caretaker committee.

Others have also commenced the move of disengaging the Action Congress of Nigeria, ACN, from the ruling APC with the aim of ensuring that Tinubu contests the 2023 Presidential election.

Few days before the APC NEC meeting, the former Lagos State Governor stormed Kano State to attend a wedding ceremony but in essence the wedding turned out to be a political campaign as Islamic leaders pledged to support the Asiwaju come 2023.

The support came in droves as leader of Ahlu Sunnah, Sheikh Abdulwahb Abdulla described Tinubu as a true Nigerian, whose generosity cuts across the country. Abdulwahb reassured Tinubu of Muslims’ and Islamic scholars’ readiness to support his 2023 Presidential ambition.

“The Northern Muslims are ready to give you their support because when the fight was tough, you accepted our own son, Muhammadu Buhari, who had tried in vain severally, until he became president in 2015. We pray that Allah takes you to that height and position you so desire,” he said.

Similarly, leader of Tijaniyya sect in Kano, Sheikh Ibrahim Shehu Mai Hula, who reemphasized the loyalty and support the North enjoyed from the southwestern part of the country through Tinubu’s influence, declared that religious leaders were prepared to reciprocate similar gesture in 2023.

Representative of Khadiriya sect, Sheik Abdulgafar Khdiriya, prayed that Allah fulfils the APC leader’s desire.

The Dangers Ahead For APC

As the tussle between the political gladiators intensifies, analysts warn that the South West led by Tinubu would pull out of the APC in due course and this would affect the 2023 Presidential election ambition of the APC.

They also warned that the internal wrangling in the party would also lead to mass defection from the party, while the legal tussles embarked upon by some party members would also have a negative image on the party.