TOWARD ELECTIONS IN 2027: TINUBU MUST GO OR TINUBU MUST STAY?
By Abbati Bako,PSC,BSIS,UK’S European University, Researcher in Globalization Policy & Political Strategy | Alumnus, University of Kent, UK abbatibako@gmail.com | September 2026
1. INTRODUCTION: WHY NIGERIA IS BLEEDING
Certainly, Nigerian democracy bleeds.
Not because Nigerians hate democracy. No.
- It bleeds as a result of serious anger accumulation anger stored from 2015 to 2025.
1. Poor Economic Policy: Subsidy gone, Naira floated, but wages are still 2015 wages.
2. Insecurity: Bandits tax farmers in Zamfara. Kidnappers close roads in Imo. Nobody is safe.
3. Inflation: Bag of rice was N35k in 2023, now N75k. Bread is now luxury.
4. Institutional Decay: University lecturers on strike, hospitals without light, court judgments bought and sold.
5. Stagflation: We have unemployment + inflation + low growth, the worst combination any economist fears and again no constant electricity.
So when Nigerians shout “Tinubu Must Go!” or “Tinubu Must Stay!” They are not shouting about Tinubu alone. They are shouting about their pain.
2. ARGUMENT 1: WHY THE CROWD SHOUTS “TINUBU MUST GO”
The “Must Go” movement is loud, especially in the North, South East, and among youth.
1. The Promise vs Reality Gap: President Tinubu promised in 2023 “It’s my turn to fix Nigeria.” But 2 years later, Nigerians say _”We were better off before.” Hope has turned to hardship and misery.
2. Hunger as Weapon: NBS says 133 million are in multidimensional poverty. That is not a statistic. That is 133 million angry people.
3. No Safety Valve: When people can’t eat, they can’t be told to be patient. An empty stomach does not listen to economic theory.
4. Precedent: In 2015, Nigerians said “Jonathan Must Go” for similar reasons. The same playbook is back in almost every location in Nigeria.
Their logic is simple: If the medicine is killing the patient, just stop the medicine pure and simple!
3. ARGUMENT 2: WHY THE PALACE SHOUTS “TINUBU MUST STAY”
The Presidency and APC have their own strong points, and we must be fair to state them:
1. Reform Takes Time: “We met a near-collapsed economy. The subsidy was a fraud. The forex racket was a fraud. We stopped both.” (Bayo Onanuga).
2. Long-Term Gains: World Bank, IMF say reforms will pay off by 2026/27. Dangote Refinery working, CNG buses coming, Student Loan started.
3. No Better Alternative?: The opposition is divided, Atiku vs Obi vs Kwankwaso. APC says _”We are bad, but who is better organized?”
4. Second Term Tradition: Since 1999, every elected President got 2 terms. Why should Tinubu be the exception?
Their logic is also simple: If you stop surgery halfway, the patient will die anyway.
4. THE DEEP ANALYSIS: WHAT DOES POLITICAL STRATEGY SAY?
As a trained political strategist from Kent University UK, I assess with 4 tools:
Factor Favors “Must Go” Favors “Must Stay”
Economy, Inflation, hunger = Anger votes If the Naira stabilizes by early 2026, the narrative can change.
Security: North West & South East bleeding. If banditry reduces, the President can claim success.
Opposition Unity:
Atiku/Obi alliance could poll 55% combined If the opposition fails to unite, Tinubu wins with 35%. Youth Anger #EndBadGovernance protest showed street power Youth have no PVC collection power yet.
Historical lesson: Governments don’t lose because opposition is strong. They lose because people are tired. Jonathan lost in 2015 not because Buhari was popular, but because people were tired of his bad policies on economy and insecurity.
Is Nigeria tired now? Yes indeed!
5. THE NORTHERN QUESTION: THE KINGMAKER IN THE ELECTIONS OF 2027
Let me be blunt. No President wins Nigeria without the Northern majority votes. This is not possible.
In 2023, Tinubu got only 40% of Northern votes. He won because the North was split between Atiku and Kwankwaso.
In 2027, if Atiku + Kwankwaso + Obi unite, Northern states can deliver a knockout.
That’s why the slogan “Tinubu Must Go” is loudest in Kano, Kaduna, and Katsina. It’s not hate. It’s hunger, economic stagnation, precarity and insecurity.
6. VERDICT:
“TINUBU MUST GO” IT IS NOT ABOUT TINUBU. IT IS ABOUT NIGERIANS GENERALLY.
My final analysis:
1. “Tinubu Must Go” is not personal. It is a referendum on: “Has your life improved since May 2023?”. For 80% of Nigerians, the answer is NO.
2. “Tinubu Must Stay” is possible only if 4 miracles happen before December 2026:
a) Rice drops to N30k
b) Naira at N1,100/$
c) Banditry drops by 10%
d) Petrol drops by N700 per litre.
If those 4 don’t happen, no amount of media, propaganda, or political shenanigans will save the government of APC. Nigerians will vote with their stomachs.
Nigeria’s democracy does not need “Must Go” slogans. It needs performance. If performance comes, Tinubu will stay. If pain continues, Tinubu must go. And it seems that Tinubu is on his way back to Lagos.
Conclusion: The Choice is Tinubu’s
Mr. President, the 2027 election is not in 2027. It has already started. It is happening in the market, on the farm, in the hospital queue.
History is waiting. Will it be “He came, he suffered the people, he left” or “He came, he fixed it, he stayed”? The answer is not in Aso Rock. It is in the price of rice, security, control of economic stagnation, unemployment and stagflation.
Dr. Abbati Bako, expert in political strategy and communications abbatibako@gmail.com
