Is Nigeria a Failed State ?

…As Poverty, Insecurity overwhelms helpless Citizens
…Why the next 3 years will not change anything

By Mike Odeh James
Former president, Olusegun Obasanjo and incumbent President, Muhammad Buhari have locked horns again over the fast degrading and disintegrating security cum economic situation in the country.

Speaking last week in Abuja at a consultative meeting organized by major sociocultural organizations in Nigeria, namely Afenifere, Middle Belt Forum,Northern Elders Forum,Ohanaeze Ndi Igbo and Pan Niger Delta Forum, the former President lamented the deteriorating fabrics of the nation under President Buhari.

The former military Head of State, insisted that Nigeria is slowly becoming a failed state and a basket case that needs to be pulled back from the brink.

He said,

“ I do appreciate that you all feel sad and embarrassed as most of us feel as Nigerians with the situation we find ourselves in .
“Today , Nigeria is fast drifting to a failed and badly divided state; economically our country is becoming a basket case and poverty capital of the world , and socially , we are firming up as an unwholesome and insecure country.

“ And these manifestations are the products of recent mismanagement of diversity and socio – economic development of our country . Old fault lines that were disappearing have opened up in greater fissures and with drums of hatred , disintegration and separation and accompanying choruses being heard loud and clear almost everywhere. ”

The former leader, while appreciating the leaders of the sociocultural organizations for organizing a national parley that would lead to peaceful resolution of Nigeria’s woes,also listed banditry, kidnappings, armed robbery, corruption as some of the maladies to be tackled .

“With what I have seen , read and heard from the rapprochement that you are forging together, I see a ray of hope that Nigeria can be saved from disintegration .

“ If we are ready to live together in understanding , mutual respect and love with equity , justice , inclusiveness while engendering sense of belonging and unity of purpose and all hands on deck , we can deal with internal issues of terrorism, organised crimes , banditry, kidnapping, human trafficking, drug , money laundering and corruption. We will then be able to deal successfully with any incoming attack of terrorism, organised crimes , etc ; from outside,” he added .

Despite the fact that former President sounded more like a patriot, his speech nonetheless drew the anger of the Presidency. The incumbent President did not see his predecessor’s speech as a call for all to join hands to salvage the country from an ever looming danger.

Rather, the Presidency smelt a ganger up.

If Aso Rock viewed Obasanjo’s speech with suspicion, it may not be blamed, for leaders Afenifere, Middle Belt, Ohanaeze Ndi Igbo and others at the forum all supported the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party in the 2019 Presidential Election which Buhari won in a controversial manner.

More so, the former President who was instrumental to the emergence of Buhari as President in 2015, switched his support to Atiku Abubakar of the PDP four years after.

Furthermore, if Obasanjo had his ways, Buhari won’t have contested last year’s election.
It did not take long for the Presidency to respond to Mr. Obasanjo’s speech.
When the Presidential response came, it was full of vituperations and invectives.

In a statement signed by the Senior Special Assistant on Media to the President, Garba Shehu, Buhari said that the former president was a lowly divider in chief as a President.

Shehu reitered that Obasanjo’s criticisms of President Buhari were devoid of good intentions, saying that the former Nigerian leader was jealous of Buhari’s achievements.

He said, “In his most recent statement former President Olusegun Obasanjo attempts to divide the nation while President Muhammadu Buhari continues to promote nation building and the unity of Nigeria. The difference is clear. From the lofty heights of Commander-in-Chief, General Obasanjo has descended to the lowly level of Divider-in-Chief (to adapt the coinage of Time).

“It’s a known fact that the withdrawal of subsidies had been on the wish list of the Obasanjo-led Peoples Democratic Party, PDP. They failed in achieving these measures because, one there was a shared greed. They plundered the treasury as much as anyone could in the name of either subsidy or waiver with reckless impunity.

“Two, is to say it takes courage and rare statesmanship on the part of a leader to do as President Buhari to shun populism and seek the best interest of the people and the state, providing the kind of reform and development that Nigeria urgently needs.

“Nigeria, which other nations had mocked and ridiculed for so many things that were wrong is today progressing at a pace reflecting its size and potential.

“With so much to show and many more coming, it is little surprise that President Buhari would be the object of envy and harsh unfair challenges by politicians who failed to deliver, but continue to nurse ambitions of delighting the audience long after their curtain has been drawn.”

And to cap it all, Femi Adesina another media aide to the President claimed that President stopped Nigeria from becoming a failed state.

While one may not dispute the spokesman of the President nor his claim, However, Desert Herald decided to fact-check claims by both Obasanjo that Nigeria is a failing, and that of President Buhari that , the Buhari Presidency has halted Nigeria from drifting into a failed state .

According to Wikipedia, a failed state is a political body that has disintegrated to a point where basic conditions and responsibilities of a sovereign government no longer function properly.

A state can also fail if the government loses its legitimacy even if it is performing its functions properly.

The Fund for Peace futher characterizes a failed state as having the following characteristics:

Loss of control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein

Erosion of legitimate authority to make collective decisions

Inability to provide public services

Inability to interact with other states as a full member of the international community

Common characteristics of a failing state include a central government so weak or ineffective that it has an inability to raise taxes or other support, and has little practical control over much of its territory and hence there is a non-provision of public services. When this happens, widespread corruption and criminality, the intervention of state and non-state actors , the appearance of refugees and the involuntary movement of populations, sharp economic decline, and foreign military intervention can occur.

As can be gleaned from the above, Nigeria has functional gvernment both at the Federal, State and Local Levels. Furthermore, the Federal Government is capable of projecting its authority and imposing its will on the populace .

Secondly, Nigerian government has legitimaticy and authority as bestowed by the constitution .

Therefore the Muhammad Buhari led administration has achieved two major points to show that Nigeria is not a failed state .
Nonetheless, in 2019, the House Chief Whip, Hon. Mohammed Tahir Monguno, representing Marte/Monguno/Nganzai Federal Constituency alleged that eight Local Government Areas of Borno are under Book Haram occupation

However, the definition of a failed state includes one which the government is unable to provide public services to the populace that it governs

These services includes:

Courts

Electricity

Education

Emergency services

Environmental protection

Health care

Military

Public transportation

Public buildings

Social services

Telecommunications

Urban planning

Transportation infrastructure

Waste management

Water supply network

It is also obvious that Nigerians are complaining of not enjoying the services listed above .

In this area, the government of President Buhari like that of his predecessors have failed woefully..

Are Nigerians Safe in 2015- 2020 ?

Economics ‘s global Terrorists index ranks Nigeria third behind Afghanistan and Iraq as one of the countries with high rate of terrorist attacks .

Terrorism Index

Afghanistan

Iraq

Nigeria

Syria

Pakistan

Somalia

India

Yemen

Philippines

Congo

The same index ranked Nigeria as the number one country in Africa with terrorist attacks .

Similarly, the Global Peace Index for 2020 ranked Nigeria as the 7th most dangerous place in Africa

GLOBAL PEACE INDEX

Which African countries are the most dangerous?

8. Mali – 145 GPI

7. Nigeria – 148 GPI

6. Sudan – 149 GPI

5. Democratic Republic of Congo – 155 GPI

4. Libya – 156 GPI

3. Central African Republic – 157 GPI

2. South Sudan – 161 GPI

1. Somalia – 163 GPI Rank

Global Peace index uses eight primary peaceful pillars to underpin the GPI rankings. These include the following:

Stable business environment

Capable government

Acceptance of human rights

Free-flowing information

Sound international relations with neighboring states

Lower corruption levels

Higher levels of human capital

Fair distribution of national resources

The most important of these pillars in nations that are suffering from violence include lower corruption levels, effective government, good international relations, and accepting the rights of others in society.

Nigeria keeps appearing in the list of countries that appeared to be on the horizon of failed entity.

In 2019, the Fragile States Index placed Nigeria as the 14th most fragile state in the world.

The same index put Nigetia as the ninth fragile nation in Africa.

According to the Index, Yemen is the “most failed” state, followed by Somalia, while Finland emerged the most sustainable state on Earth.

The Fragile States Index is a yearly report put together by a Washington DC-based think tank Fund for Peace.

The think tank normally rates 178 countries with 12 indicators of the risks and vulnerabilities faced by individual nations.”

Out of the 15 most failed nations, 10 are African countries. These include Somalia (second), South Sudan (third), Democratic Republic of Congo (fifth), Central Africa Republic (sixth), Chad (seventh), Sudan (eighth), Zimbabwe (10th), Guinea (11th), Nigeria (14th), and Burundi (15th).

Some of the risk indicators include security, group grievances, economic decline and brain drain, state legitimacy/human rights and rule of law, demographic pressures, and internally displaced persons or refugees. These indicators assessed: “the vulnerability of states to collapse” by measuring “vulnerability in pre-conflict, active conflict and post-conflict situations.”

From all indications, Desert Herald findings shows that international indicators supports former president Obasanjo’s assertion that the country is gravitating towards a failed state.

Internally, Nigeria in 2019 recorded about 2,583,000 Internally Displaced Persons by violence either by Boko Haram, Fulani Herdsmen and Farmers clashes, or banditry in the North East and in the North West.

Furthermore, the insecurity crisis that was largely restricted to the North East in 2015, spiralled out control and have moved to States like Zamfara,Katsina , Sokoto and Kaduna in the North west .
The insecurity in the North west have taken a different dimension in form of kidnapping and banditry .

Further to the South, the Middle Belt States in the North Central are also engulfed with the Fulani Herdsmen and Farmers clashes with a greater ferocity than before.

As the conflict between the herdsmen and farmers continues unabated in Middle Belt, South Western states took it upon themselves to defend their region against possible attacks by herdsmen.
This has led to the setting up of the Amotekun or Leopard Security outfit. The South East states are also formalizing their own security apparatus.
The danger is that these security outfits may in the long run act as regional Armies for their respective regions which may eventually weaken the Federal Government’s authority.
However, it also brings one back to one of the indices of a failed state – Loss of control of its territory, or of the monopoly on the legitimate use of physical force therein.

On the economic front, 82 million Nigerians are extremely poor, that is according to the National Bureau for Statics, however, the figure given by NBS by may not be the true reflection of poverty in the country.

Even President Buhari inadvertently admitted that over 100, 000 000 of Nigerians are living in poverty when he said that he plans on getting over 100,000 , 000 Nigerians out of poverty .
Furthermore, the World Poverty Clock on its Website said about 102, 000, 000 Nigerians are living in extreme poverty now .

In 2018, Nigeria overtook India as the poverty capital of the world with over 87 million persons living in extreme poverty .

The findings, based on a projection by the World Poverty Clock and compiled by Brookings Institute, show that more than 643 million people across the world live in extreme poverty, with Africans accounting for about two-thirds of the total number.

In the same vein, the country ’s unemployment rate jumped to 27.1% as at the second quarter of this year meaning that about 21.764,614 million Nigerians remained unemployed.

When the country’s unemployment and underemployment rate (28.6%) is a combined it is equal to 55.7%. This means the total number 55:7% Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed as at the second quarter of this year

This is contained in a recently released unemployment data report published by the National Bureau of Statistics.

Desert Herald findings here also shows that Nigeria has failed in job and wealth creation with over 100,000 000 Nigerians living in extreme poverty and over 20 million unemployed while a whole lot remained underemployed.

Sahara Reporters, an online paper carried a report that said 2020 mortality estimates released by the United Nations Children’s Fund, Nigeria recorded 209,000 neonatal deaths in 1990– a 61,000 increase compared to 270,000 deaths in 2019.

The figures for number of deaths among children aged five to 14 also increased from 104,000 in 1990 to 119,000 in 2019.

The report further said that while child deaths were uneven across regions, the situation is worse in sub-Saharan Africa and Central and Southern Asia.

It added that while the pandemic had limited direct impact on child mortality, countries worldwide are now experiencing disruptions in child and maternal health services due to resource constraints and a general uneasiness with using health services due to a fear of contracting COVID-19.

Henrietta Fore, UNICEF Director, said, “The global community has come too far towards eliminating preventable child deaths to allow the COVID-19 pandemic to stop us in our tracks.

“If the child survival targets are to be met on time, resources and policy must be geared toward not only sustaining current rates of decline but also accelerating progress, which would save millions of lives. If the trends from 2010 to 2019 continue, 53 countries will not meet the SDG target on under-five mortality on time—if all countries were to meet that target, 11 million under-five deaths would be averted from 2020 to 2030.

“Achieving the child survival goals and heading off a reversal of progress in child survival in 2020 will require universal access to effective, high-quality and affordable care and the continued, safe provision of life-saving interventions for women, children, and young people.

“If all countries reach the SDG child survival targets by 2030, 11 million lives under age 5 will be saved—more than half of them in sub-Saharan Africa.”

The World Bank had in 2018 said Nigeria will take over from India as the world capital for deaths of children under the age of five by 2021.

The bank’s report was based on the fact that India, with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 989,000 under-five deaths in 2017, while Nigeria, with 196 million citizens, recorded 714,000 deaths in the same year.

In its bi-annual economic update on Nigeria, the World bank said Nigeria records the highest number of child malaria deaths anywhere in the world, adding that Nigeria had the highest number of out-of-school children anywhere in the world, and that 90 per cent of these children are from Northern Nigeria.

The bank said, “Nigeria’s weak revenue mobilisation has major implications for its growth and development, including for improving its dire social service delivery outcomes.

“Poverty remains high in Nigeria and access to basic social services is not universal. In 2016, the World Bank estimated poverty at 38.8 per cent of the population using the national poverty line.

“By international poverty line of PPP-corrected $1.90 per capita per day, an estimated 49.2 per cent of the population lived below poverty in 2017.”

Furthermore, Obasanjo also said Nigeria has become divided along ethnic and religious lines.
The former President is spot on.
Today, many sociocultural groups have accused the Federal Government of foisting an ethnic plus religious agenda on a diverse nation like Nigeria

It shoddy handling of the Herdsmen and Farmers clashes in the North Central States have led to the wrongful stigmatization of the Fulani ethnic tribe .

The Southern Kaduna crisis is another sore on the unity of the country .The crisis in the state led to the disinvitation of Governor Nasir El Rufai by Nigeria Bar Association to its 60th
Annual General Conference.

The Governor was initially invited to deliver a keynote address at the conference. However, the decision to stop El Rufai from addressing the conference has all caused another major religious crisis in country as some Muslim lawyers pulled out of the NBA to form a splinter body .

Katch Onanuju, a public affairs commentator said on a national television that Buhari’s policies had pushed many ethnic nationalities into insurgency, one may not dispute that as the many ethnic groups especially the Igbos of the South East have all but being in an open rebellion against the Federal Government and their vehicle is the Indigenous People of Biafra, IPOB.

While findings by Desert Herald does not mean to vilify the Federal Government, but the truth as shown supports the former President that Nigeria is a slowly moving to being a failed state .