THE HARD FACT

By Sanusi Muhammad

The concluded Osun State governorship election on Saturday it may open Tinubu’s eyes to a reality that his party National Working Committee may not be adequately communicating to him the true situation on the ground and the growing disconnect between the APC leadership and the grassroots.

This may explain why Tinubu did not wait for his party men, who had been rendered politically powerless by Governor Ademola Adeleke in Osun, to return to Abuja before congratulating the governor. Despite belonging to different political parties, the President appears to understand the importance of recognising political reality and the will of the people. He may have realised that, regardless of political affiliation, Governor Adeleke deserves credit for the performance he demonstrated at the polls.

I commend the capacity and political resilience Governor Adeleke has demonstrated in Osun. The so-called federal might that the APC deployed against Osun was ultimately exposed as insufficient to override the will of the people. Elections cannot be won simply by relying on political power, propaganda, or narratives designed to suit a particular agenda while ignoring the realities at the grassroots.

What is even more striking is that the APC has suffered significant electoral setbacks, in Anambra and now Osun. The party must therefore begin to ask serious questions about its strategy, its relationship with the people, and the effectiveness of its grassroots structures.

If the APC refuses to learn from these developments, it may learn the harder way in 2027.

One important lesson is that the popularity of Tinubu, if any at all, should not be assumed to translate into votes for every APC candidate contesting for the House of Representatives or Senate. In 2027, voters may make more independent choices, separating their presidential preference from their choices for legislative candidates and governors.

Therefore, APC candidates should not assume that a presidential vote will automatically carry them to victory at the National Assembly level. The people are becoming increasingly conscious of the quality, capacity and performance of those they elect to represent them.

The message from Osun should not be dismissed as an isolated event. It should serve as a warning to the APC: political power that caused defections cannot replace grassroots acceptance, and propaganda cannot substitute for reality.

If the APC fails to listen to the people and address the growing concerns at the grassroots, 2027 may present an even greater political challenge.

Muhammad is a commentator on national issues