Can APC Win 2023 Election?

By Ibrahim Mustapha Pambegua

President Muhammadu Buhari has said his party, All Progressives Congress, APC, may lose the 2023 presidential election to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) or another opposition party if the ruling party does not put its acts together.

Mr. Buhari stated this in an interview with the Nigerian Television Authority (NTA) penultimate Thursday. He spoke against the backdrop of disagreement on some issues around the APC convention slated for February. To say this statement comes from President Buhari, who is a direct beneficiary of the coalesce legacies parties which became APC and wrestles power from PDP in 2015 general election sounds a warning note. But beyond the party’s convention, there are other intractable issues or huddles the party may contend with in a bid to retain power in 2023. While the forthcoming party’s convention will serve as a litmus test and determine which part of the country may produce presidential candidate, signs have since emerged that the south-west has an upper hand.

In the south-West, many big political gladiators have shown interest to vie the number one seat. Notably among is: Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Vice President Yemi Osinbanjo and Governor Fayemi. Many political groups have been pushing for their candidature. However, among the contenders, Bola Tinubu proves to be a hard knock to crack. One of his weaknesses is the issue of “running mate”. Political pundits have predicted, if Tinubu gets the party’s ticket and picks his running mate from the northern Christian minority, it cannot sway northern Muslims votes for him. What if Tinubu finally settles for Muslim running mate? It will not also translate to election victory, looking at how the country is polarized along religious fault line. These are some of the Tinubu’s albatross. Unless Tinubu who has been playing the role of king maker will step down and support one of his loyalists, APC chances to win 2023 election looks slim win.

The problems of insecurity that bedeviled the country which the APC led administration promised to address when it came to power in 2015 have defied lasting solutions. Though, the administration might have recorded success in liberating some local governments in Borno state from the grip of boko haram insurgents as stated times without number by Mr. President, insecurity has reared its ugly head and become franks teen monster in the country. In the last six years of APC administration, kidnapping and banditry in the North West states have persisted. Bandits have continued to overrun and sack many communities, impose taxes and drive poor farmers from their farms. The emerging of non-state actors such as Nnamdi Kanu and Sunday Igboho, threatening the co-operate existence of the country has exacerbated tension. Despite the fact these non-state actors were arrested and their movement proscribed, some states in the south East have never known peace. For instance, the violent activities of Eastern security network (ESN), have paralyzed business and education in Imo, Anambra and Enugu states. With the deteriorating insecurity in the country and the inability of APC led government to tame it, Nigerians can reject the party in the next election.

Another area the Buhari’s administration performs abysmal poor is the economy. Yes, the government might have inherited bad economy from its predecessor. The crashed in the price of crude oil could have badly affected its revenues. However, some key economy indicators have shown that, the government has failed to improve the economy as promised during its campaign. Let us look at the country’s inflation which continues to eat up Nigerians purchasing power. Prior to 2015, the nation inflation rates remained at single digit––even as analysts opined at the time that it was high. For instance, in the whole of 2014, the nation’s rate of inflation moved between 7.7 per cent, which was the lowest, to the highest point of 8.5 per cent. In 2015 when Mr. Buhari took over power, inflation rate averaged 9 per cent. In recent years, the nation has seen a persistent surge in inflation rates, reaching the highest levels. Food inflation has climbed up beyond the reach of the ordinary Nigerians who are struggling daily to eke out a living. It is on record, when the administration took over power in the second quarter of 2015, unemployment rate rose to 9.9 per cent in the third quarter of that year from 8.2 per cent in the second quarter, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Since then, unemployment, poverty and economic disempowerment have remained a disturbing feature of the Nigerian life. One should also talk about the continue crash in naira, foreign exchange policy and debt rate which currently stands at N38 trillion and may reach to N50 trillion by 2023. If the performance of the country’s economy is anything to go by, APC will find it difficult to get Nigerians mandate in 2023.

The decision of the government to remove fuel subsidy this year will have serious negative effects to the lives of Nigerians. If subsidy is removed, more Nigerians will be pushed to poverty and hunger. This policy will affect APC in the next election. Moreover, for the opposition political parties to capture power in 2023, they need to come together, become formidable forces and work out comprehensive blue print for the development of the country. They should also present candidate of timber and caliber fully prepared to confront the numerous challenges bedevil the country.

Ibrahim mustapha pambegua, writes from Kaduna state. 08169056963.