Sokoto 2023: Revisiting 342 and its nemesis

By Aminu Mohammed (Prince)

Once again the hunting game for who becomes the next governor of Sokoto state is loading and the hunters are performing their secret rituals to go into the trenches.

However, as we await the real drama and excitement of the “Safari in the Jungle”, some actors have already become preys thereby putting question marks on their endurance in the great trek.

In 2019, the state of Sokoto in the north western part of Nigeria became a center of attraction when the incumbent governor, Rt Hon. Aminu Waziri Tambuwal was overstretched by his former deputy, Hon. Ahmed Aliyu and the final polls had to be decided in a re.run. in fact, it was one gubernatorial election too many. The circumstances surrounding the final outcome have remained unsolved mysteries that both contemporary political actors and historians are still cracking their brains to unravel.

Until we unravel the mysteries behind the acceptability and unacceptable reasons why what happened, happened, the report of that election would remain INCONCLUSIVE.
Whatever the outcome whether real or imagined, we are 14 months away from having another guber election and as we gradually jog through the days, weeks and months to come, what lessons have we learnt or derived from the victory and otherwise of the 2019 guber election and what are the successes and failures of both winners and losers?
Furthermore, while we are previleged to assess the work rate of the the government, we also are previleged to analyze the rate of the opposition whether it was good enough to push the government to work for the electorates.

It might appear too early for the real actors to showcase what arsenal they have in their armoury but the early bird they say catches the warmth. The big question here is where are the bold, the courageous and men who dare? It is said that who dares win.

Meanwhile, in this serial write up, a brief jogging into the past would help to forecast our 2023 expectations. Shortly after the “342” announcement that elongated the PDP’s hold on power, the indigenes of Sokoto state and other Nigerian citizens had put their hopes and trust on the party to perform creditably well considering the circumstances surrounding its victory. Three years after, the sixty-four thousand dollar question is, ARE WE THERE YET? Between May 29, 2019 and December 31, 2021, how has the PDP under Tambuwal who just managed to escape with the meager figure ever to win a guber race faired? This question is not only directed to the opposition but the real victims of the dramatic 342 figure who are the PDP supporters who had hoped that there would be LIGHT at the end of the TUNNEL, there would be MANNA from HEAVEN and A New Look Tambuwal. Has anything changed from what it used to be or have we experienced more disappointments than expected?

What legacy is Tambuwal as a second term governor leaving behind on May 29, 2023? Has he done more than what his predecessors had done or he is miles behind? How would he fair when it comes to rating each past governor based on performance? All these, would form part of the analysis to come and finally, who are those scrambling to take over from governor Tambuwal and what credentials are they putting forward to convince the electorates to vote for them?

As usual, the two major political parties are the Peoples Democratic Party ( PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) and unless by any miracle a Third Force emerges, the battle is still going to be by the same hunters who in 2019 displayed their artistry but were not courageous to reach the finishing line. The actors who came on stage and offered what they had but couldn’t make it would reappear either in new regalia or the same old costumes. Therefore, expect some old wine in new bottles. The bottle would be green but what is inside maybe different.

Starting with the PDP which is the ruling party in Sokoto, governor Tambuwal is in his final lap in the race but like in 2019, he is still nursing a presidential ambition so whoever emerges as the party’s candidate, is on his own because Tambuwal would be preoccupied with his personal ambition to rule Nigeria. With this development, his deputy, Hon. Manir Dan’iya is the highest ranking politician in the party to step into Tambuwal’s shoe, but can he?
Apart from the deputy governor, the Secretary to the State Government ( SSG) Saidu Umar is another probable. There is also a former deputy governor of the state who was Minister for seven years under Obasanjo, Barrister Mukhtari Shagari. He has been contesting since 2003 and had the chance to prove his worth in 2007 but the PDP/ ANPP alliance that year robbed him of his ticket.

There are also some few veterans like Garba Ila Gada and Ahmad Muhammad Gusau and some serving commissioners who are planning to join the race but the serious contenders so far in the PDP are the state deputy governor, the SSG and the former water resources minister.

In the opposition APC, the story has not changed much just like in the PDP but so far only Senator Abdullahi Gobir has indicated interest to run. However, the 2019 APC candidate who fell as the victim of the 342 figure, Hon. Ahmed Aliyu is the strongest contender. If his performance in the last guber election which produced the controversial 342 verdict is anything to rely on, then he has a good reason to stage a come back. Like football coaches always believe and say, YOU DO NOT CHANGE A WINNING TEAM. The likes of Hon. Yusuf Suleiman and Abubakar Shehu Tambuwal are all probables to expect in the APC race. For now, everybody is a probable until the real contest begins.

Furthermore, the APC still has Hon. Faruku Malami Yabo current ambassador to Jordan on its list while a retired civil servant, Abubakar Abdullahi Gumbi is also among those that are being speculated to go for a shot. We still expect other aspirants from the non functional parties to join the race but the PDP and the APC are the two at the driving seat so far.

However, there are other aspiring politicians who are neither here nor there but for the purpose of this write-up, they would be short-listed under the APC since they have not announced their withdrawal from the party even though they are seen as “anti party agents”. Senator Abubakar Umar Gada and a serving House of Reps member, Hon. Abdullahi Salame have both put structures into place to run in the 2023 guber race and their separate ambitions appear to be misleading them to fight dirty with the party which may not favour them.

The last but not the least aspiring gubernatorial aspirant is one Umar Ajiya Bafarawa who is occupying a very high position at the NNPC He is an in-law to former governor Attahiru Dalhatu Bafarawa and so the PDP is his destination. While he may be a highly placed NNPC staff, he is not known in Sokoto political circle so his trump card is money. As second in command in the NNPC, he would have to start from the scratch to put a political structure in place between now and June when we expect party primaries to convince the PDP delegates and by extension the entire state why he is the best candidate to take over from Tambuwal. So, it is between money and goodwill.

The chances of the PDP in 2023 would depend largely on the performance of Tambuwal between 2019 and February, 2023 a month before the guber election. Again, the chances of the APC would also be determined by how credible it has been as an opposition party.

This serialized analysis would give an insight on why the electorates have to VOTE for either of the two major parties or reject them and go for an alternative. Do we need an alternative force or do we go with the status quo? If there is need for an alternative, what is the way forward for that alternative and if we have to remain with the status quo, how have both the PDP and APC responded to our needs? Then finally, what do you think are the dividends of democracy in Sokoto from 2019 to date?