NATIONAL CENSUS TO THE DISADVANTAGE OF THE NORTH?

It is no longer news that all is set for the conduct of National Population and Housing Census as approved by the Council of State chaired by President Muhammadu Buhari at its meeting on Friday, April 14, 2022, at the Presidential Villa, Abuja.

The Council directed that the exercise takes place immediately after the 2023 general election and as such; April 2023 was set as the date for the commencement of the exercise by the National Population Commission, NPC, which is the body constitutionally saddled with the responsibility of conducting the exercise in the country. As a country desirous to make speedy progress, the need to have a reliable and accurate census figures to guide our planning and developmental decisions cannot be overemphasized.

However, for this noble exercise to get the acceptability of the generality of the citizens, the government have a responsibility to ensure that certain existential problems that will jeopardize the exercise and put a certain part of the country on the disadvantage side is avoided so that in the end, issues such as the credibility, reliability and acceptability of the exercise will not be challenged. As such, the government need to cautiously look into the date announced for the commencement of the exercise in order to avoid the needless controversy that may likely trail the outcome of the exercise as it was the case with the 2006 census figures and others that preceded it.

However, certain issues need to be raised in order to guide policy makers of the very difficult prospect the northern part of the country will find herself if the exercise go on as planned based on the reality of happenings across the country.

Firstly, several factors from outside and within have today laid siege on Nigeria’s territorial integrity and sovereignty manifesting in different forms of insecurity with virtually no any part of the country that can boast of being in one piece as far as security of lives and property is concerned. The insurgency and terrorism in the North East, the banditry and terrorism in the North West and some parts of the North Central coupled with herders’/farmers clashes has saw to the displacement of tens of thousands of Nigerians with some communities becoming total shadows of themselves as no living souls inhabit such areas. This will no doubt be to the detriment of the north if the NPC embarks on such exercise in April as the reliability and credibility of the figures that will emanate from the north will be put to question and this development if it happens; will further derail Nigeria’s quest towards achieving the long crafted ideal of oneness and togetherness as

envisaged by our founding fathers.

Secondly, it is very important to state that there is a strong correlation between population census figures and horizontal allocation of revenue to states in the country and as such, undertaken the census exercise by April next year will no doubt serve as a means through which the north that is synonymous to its boastful population since in the pre-independence era will be shortchanged. If this is allowed to happen, it will come with its socio-economic and security consequences of unimaginable proportion as most northern states with the exception of few depends largely on allocation from the Federation Account Allocation Committee, FAAC, mostly from the oil sector to deliver on good governance mandate signed with the electorate. This is corroborated by the 2020 Annual States Viability Index of Economic Confidential (Nigeria’s leading economic intelligence Magazine) which shows that eight states are insolvent as their Internally Generated Revenues in 2020 were far below 10 per cent of their receipts from the Federation Account Allocations. Sadly, out of the eight insolvent states, seven are from the north that include; Benue, Taraba, Niger, Yobe, Adamawa, Katsina and Jigawa. Unfortunately, for northern states, efforts demonstrated and put in place in the collection of Internally Generated Revenue which is one of the principle upon which horizontal allocation of revenue is also based; as 10 per cent of the 26.72 per cent of the vertical allocation to states is allocated based on states’ efforts in shoring up revenue. As such, due to years of collective irresponsibility of northern states’ leadership in terms of failure to improve in their Internally Generated Revenue drive, they end up parting away with the 10 per cent that could have help them realize more receipts from the Federation Account Allocations.

Thirdly, with Nigeria’s economy in bad shape, plunging millions into more poverty, with millions of innocent citizens unable to have three full meals daily, with continuous rise in the double digits of inflation rate, with unemployment and under employment averaging 55 per cent, N178.09 billion was appropriated by the government for the conduct of the National Population Census (as confirmed by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, at the public presentation and breakdown of the Appropriation Bill in Abuja on October 9, 2021) which if juxtaposed with the economic reality in the country will better be described as callous and insensitive to the plight of average Nigerians at this difficult and challenging times. It will be more rationale for the government to channel these monies into endeavors that will change the lives of the citizens for the better. In fact, if the government is clueless as to how it can positively

the lives of the average Nigerian at this time, it can use same amount to subsidize prices of staple food which in turn will provide some form of succor and relief, or channel same into subsidizing the manufacturing sector which is currently suffering from contineous rise in the cost of energy in the country. After all, even with the 2006 Census figures, to what extent can we say policy makers have utilized the estimates for planning and decision making which is the hallmark of any census exercise?

Fourthly, Nigeria’s contemporary socio-political terrain is not in any way ideal for the conduct of census within the agreed and stipulated period as citizens from across the northern and southern divides view every action of government through the ethnic and religious prism. The Census should wait a little longer after the general election deducing from the fact that the political atmosphere even before the conduct of political parties’ primaries is very tense leaving citizens speculating as to which part of the country will produce Nigeria’s next President, a cleavage that has succeeded in dividing Nigerians more along religious and ethnic lines. Recall that even national census conducted by colonial, civilian and military governments since 1952/53 when the country’s socio-political reality has not deteriorated was greeted with disdain. The socio-political situation in the country will be better imagined if politicians and authorities throw away caution into the wind and play politics without restraint, maturity and decorum as it was the case in previous general elections and sadly, the same signs are clearly manifesting as the countdown to the 2023 general election has long begun.

Finally, we believe that there has to be a new thinking in adjusting the timing about how the country intents to go about with the conduct of the census. Incidentally, the President, Muhammadu Buhari has indicated his readiness to bequeath to Nigerians a safer, secure and prosperous country, these efforts hopefully should not exclude the possibility of readjusting the time for the conduct of this noble exercise even if there are elements that will continue to mount pressure that it goes on as scheduled. President Muahammadu Buhari should know that If under his watchful eyes this exercise take place to the disadvantage of the north, he betrays the ultimate support the region gave him in his time of political need and it then means that the north has become a victim of a struggle to entrench one of its own into the exalted office of the President which many had to lose their lives for that to be actualized.